Many Commonly Used Rainfall‐Runoff Models Lack Long, Slow Dynamics: Implications for Runoff Projections

Keirnan Fowler; Wouter Knoben; Murray Peel; Tim Peterson; Dongryeol Ryu; Margarita Saft; Ki‐Weon Seo; Andrew Western

Journal article

Many Commonly Used Rainfall‐Runoff Models Lack Long, Slow Dynamics: Implications for Runoff Projections

Keirnan Fowler, Wouter Knoben, Murray Peel, Tim Peterson, Dongryeol Ryu, Margarita Saft, Ki‐Weon Seo, Andrew Western

Water Resources Research | American Geophysical Union (AGU) | Published : 2020

DOI: 10.1029/2019wr025286

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Abstract

Evidence suggests that catchment state variables such as groundwater can exhibit multiyear trends. This means that their state may reflect not only recent climatic conditions but also climatic conditions in past years or even decades. Here we demonstrate that five commonly used conceptual “bucket” rainfall‐runoff models are unable to replicate multiyear trends exhibited by natural systems during the “Millennium Drought” in south‐east Australia. This causes an inability to extrapolate to different climatic conditions, leading to poor performance in split sample tests. Simulations are examined from five models applied in 38 catchments, then compared with groundwater data from 19 bores and Grav..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Keirnan Fowler Author

Murray Peel Author

Dongryeol Ryu Author

Margarita Saft Author

Related Projects (2)

VULNERABILITIES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WATER OUTCOMES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

This project aims to assess the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to extended droughts in a variable and changing climate. Governments ..

VULNERABILITIES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WATER OUTCOMES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

This project aims to assess the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to extended droughts in a variable and changing climate. Governments ..

Grants

Awarded by Australian Research Council

Funding Acknowledgements

This study was conducted with the support of the Australian Research Council (LP170100598) and the Bureau of Meteorology (TP705654) during the period of preparation for this manuscript. Tim Peterson and Margarita Saft were supported by the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning through the "Victorian Catchment Drought Response and Recovery: Understanding where and why" project. Streamflow data used in this project were from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) Hydrologic Reference Station project website www.bom.gov.au/water/hrs.Rainfall data were from the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) project (Jones et al., 2009), www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.Potential evapotranspiration data were from the SILO project (Jeffrey et al., 2001), www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/.Groundwater data were from www.vvg.org.au; see also http://data.water.vic.gov.au.Processed GRACE data are provided in a table in the supporting information. We gratefully acknowledge the valuable comments of Charles Luce, Markus Hrachowitz, Barry Croke, Rae Moran and two anonymous reviewers, whose feedback greatly improved the manuscript.